📅 Next Week Nasdaq Outlook
CPI · Employment · Earnings Guidance
Why volatility remains elevated
📰 Summary
- Next week will be driven by CPI, employment data, and earnings guidance
- Nasdaq is currently in a high-volatility, direction-searching phase
- Inflation and labor data will shape interest-rate expectations
- Earnings guidance — especially from AI-related companies — will test whether AI investment is translating into profits
1️⃣ CPI: When, What to Expect, and Why It Matters
📌 CPI Release Schedule
- U.S. CPI (January)
📅 February 13 (Friday)
⏰ 22:30 KST / 08:30 ET
🔍 Why CPI Is So Important for Nasdaq
Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and technology stocks, which are highly sensitive to interest rates.
- Lower-than-expected CPI → Lower rate pressure → Positive for tech stocks
- Higher-than-expected CPI → “Higher for longer” rates → Valuation pressure on Nasdaq
👉 In practice, CPI acts as a proxy for the Fed’s future rate path.
👀 Which CPI Numbers Matter Most
Market focus is usually in this order:
- Core CPI (MoM) – most important
- Excludes food & energy
- Best indicator of underlying inflation trend
- Headline CPI (MoM)
- Can affect short-term sentiment, especially via energy prices
- Services inflation (especially shelter)
- Sticky inflation worries the Fed
- Surprise vs consensus
- Market reaction depends more on expectations than absolute numbers
🔮 CPI Outlook
- Inflation nowcasting models (e.g., Cleveland Fed) suggest moderate monthly increases
- Market reaction will depend on whether numbers confirm or challenge rate-cut expectations
2️⃣ Employment Data: What’s Being Released and Why It Matters
📌 Employment Report Schedule
- U.S. Employment Situation (NFP, January)
📅 Expected around February 11 (Wednesday)
⏰ 22:30 KST / 08:30 ET
(Note: Release timing may shift due to prior government shutdown disruptions)
🧠 Why Jobs Data Moves Nasdaq
Employment affects wages → inflation → interest rates.
- Very strong jobs → Wage pressure → Rate-cut expectations fade → Tech stocks pressured
- Very weak jobs → Recession fears → Risk-off sentiment
- Market preference: gradual cooling without collapse
👀 Key Employment Metrics to Watch
- Non-Farm Payrolls (job growth)
- Unemployment rate
- Average hourly earnings (wage inflation)
- Labor force participation
Among these, wage growth often has the biggest impact on inflation expectations.
3️⃣ Earnings & Guidance: Which Companies Matter Most
Next week’s earnings are less about mega-cap surprises and more about AI demand confirmation.
🏭 Key Companies to Watch
🔹 Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Semiconductor equipment = real AI capital spending
- What matters in guidance:
- Foundry & memory customer spending
- AI-related demand (HBM, advanced packaging)
- Whether AI strength offsets weakness elsewhere
🔹 Cisco (CSCO)
- AI growth requires networking infrastructure
- Weak guidance here could signal uneven AI spending
- Watch commentary on enterprise and data-center demand
🔹 Coinbase (COIN)
- Acts as a risk-sentiment proxy
- Strong results → risk-on confirmation
- Weak outlook → volatility amplification
🤖 Why AI Earnings Misses Matter
Recent AI-related earnings have shown a pattern:
- Strong revenue growth
- But profitability lagging massive Capex
What the market now wants:
- Clear link between AI spending and margins
- Specific customer demand, not generic optimism
- Reduced reliance on one or two large customers
Without these, even “okay” earnings can lead to sharp sell-offs.
4️⃣ Nasdaq Recent Trend
- Sharp sell-off → technical rebound
- No confirmed uptrend yet
- Volume confirmation is still lacking
- Market is reactive, not directional
👉 Current phase: trend validation, not trend confirmation
5️⃣ Why Nasdaq Volatility Is So High
- Interest-rate sensitivity
- Heavy concentration in a few mega-cap tech stocks
- Rising short-term options trading
- Unclear macro direction (inflation vs slowdown)
This combination leads to:
- Fast rallies
- Fast reversals
- Large intraday swings
🧾 Final Takeaway
Next week is less about predicting direction
and more about managing volatility and waiting for confirmation.
CPI, employment data, and AI-related guidance will decide whether the recent rebound evolves into something more — or fades back into consolidation.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
All opinions are personal interpretations, and all investment decisions are the responsibility of the individual investor.
📚 References / Additional Resources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Employment Situation
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - Cleveland Fed – Inflation Nowcasting
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - Kiplinger – Earnings Calendar
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/earnings-calendar - Financial Times – AI & Capex Analysis
https://www.ft.com - Investopedia – CPI & Market Volatility
https://www.investopedia.com - Nasdaq Official Website
https://www.nasdaq.com