A structural look at Tesla after losing ~50% — beyond emotions

📌 This is not just a translation but an adapted version for English-speaking investors.
It’s written so U.S. readers can easily understand the logic and real risks behind Tesla’s price behavior.

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🔎 Introduction | Why My 50% Loss Matters

Last April, I experienced nearly a 50% loss on Tesla stock during the Trump tariff news cycle.
At the time, my thinking was simple:

• “The bad news is already priced in.”
• “Tesla’s fundamentals are still solid.”
• “The stock will recover with time.”

But Tesla didn’t just fall —
it wiped out my position faster than time could heal it.

This wasn’t just a loss —
it became a lesson in understanding Tesla’s risk structure.

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⚠️ The Real Nature of Tesla’s Stock

Why does it swing so wildly?

Tesla is often labeled a “growth stock,”
but more precisely:

Tesla is a stock with a huge amount of future expectations already priced in.

Here’s what moves Tesla’s price:

• Current earnings
• Future growth expectations
• Market sentiment (fear vs. optimism)

For Tesla, the future expectations part
is far larger than the other two.

That’s why:

• Good news → price jumps too much
• Bad news → price crashes too much

⚠️ This structure makes Tesla especially hard to hold for retail investors.

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🚗 EV Demand Outlook | Growth vs. Stock Price

The electric vehicle (EV) market is still growing —
but growth pace is slowing.

For example:

• Tesla’s delivery growth rate (YoY, year over year)
  → Used to be high double-digits,
  → Now more like low to mid double-digits

📌 YoY (Year over Year)
Measures how much a number grew compared to the same period last year.

The real issue:

Tesla’s stock isn’t priced as
“a company that’s growing a bit”
but as
“a company that must keep growing fast forever.”

So even if the EV market grows,
the stock can still disappoint if growth slows.

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📊 What PER and PSR Say About Tesla

Tesla has historically traded at much higher valuation multiples than traditional automakers:

• PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): Higher than auto industry peers
  • Measures how expensive a stock is relative to earnings
• PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio): Also high
  • Useful especially for growth companies with lower profits

📌 PER and PSR
Are valuation metrics used to gauge if a stock is expensive relative to earnings or sales.

High valuations mean:

The stock has a lot of future growth already priced in.

So if growth expectations wobble,
the stock tends to fall more.

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🚀 SpaceX IPO | Why It Won’t Move Tesla’s Stock Much

Some investors think:

“If SpaceX goes public, Tesla will benefit too.”

In reality:

• Tesla and SpaceX are separate companies
• There’s no direct cash benefit to Tesla’s earnings
• Elon Musk’s attention split could even be a risk in some investors’ eyes

Conclusion:

SpaceX IPO → Potential short-term sentiment boost
but not a core long-term catalyst for Tesla’s stock price.

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⚡ TSLL (2× Tesla Leverage ETF)

Why beginners should be cautious

TSLL is an ETF designed to move twice the daily return of Tesla stock.

When might it make sense?

• After a big Tesla drop
• When fear is priced into the market
• If you plan a very short-term trade

When does it pose danger?

• Holding too long
• Buying before earnings
• No strict stop-loss plan

💡 Leverage isn’t a long-term bet —
it’s a timing tool.
Use it only when risk factors are clear.

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🔋 Tesla’s Business Beyond EVs | Hype vs. Reality

Energy Storage (ESS)

• Revenue growing
• But still a small portion of total business

Full Self-Driving (FSD)

• Tech is advancing
• Regulations and safety concerns make rollout uncertain

AI Narrative

• Markets like the story
• But results aren’t enough yet to justify valuation

Bottom line:

Tesla has lots of potential —
but revenue and earnings validation lags the hype.

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🧩 Conclusion | Tesla Is Not a Bad Company — Just Hard to Own

Tesla isn’t a bad business.
But for individual investors, it’s a highly difficult stock to trade or hold.

My 50% loss taught me:

Tesla should not be held on faith alone.
You have to understand its structure —
and constantly question risk assumptions.

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only —
not investment advice.
All opinions are personal, and
all investment decisions are your responsibility.